Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dcf…950e other 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$268 (+7%) realized +$313 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%68W / 125L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$0
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 48% −$2
other 33% +$117
crypto 8% +$201
culture 5% $0
tech 4% −$41
sports 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +1.2% -8.4% 35% 24% -9.5%
≤30d 189 -6.9% -15.8% 34% 24% -11.6%
≤90d 190 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 24% -11.5%
all 193 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 24% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 24% -1.5%
10% -23.1% 20% -10.9%
15% -30.5% 15% -19.5%
20% -37.4% 11% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$313
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses68 / 125
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions74
Markets (closed)193 / 267
History coverage186d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+172%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+117%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? No 5¢ 8¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-35%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of June? No 7¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-37%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-64%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+60%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-66%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+167%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -70%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 14 $14 +$11 +82%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 14 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 14 $7 −$2 -36%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 14 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 14 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $44 −$2 -6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Jun 14 $14 −$5 -37%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 14 $24 −$3 -14%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -65%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 14 $93 −$6 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -15%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 13 $86 −$6 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 13 $56 −$4 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -77%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $46 −$3 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 13 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $41 +$24 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $98 +$6 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 13 $16 −$6 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 13 $9 +$13 +143%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 5h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 5h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 5h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 19h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 19h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 19h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No 10¢ $5 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.94 · official $162.00 (match) · 1878 history records