Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4dcc…03bf sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate77%58W / 17L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$73
other 24% −$3
politics 23% −$4
crypto 16% +$6
economics 7% −$2
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 38 -6.9% -15.8% 84% 26% -8.9%
all 75 -4.9% -14.0% 77% 16% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 16% -9.3%
10% -22.2% 11% -18.0%
15% -29.7% 5% -25.9%
20% -36.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses58 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage248d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 08 $110 +$14 +12%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $624 +$12 +2%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $1,384 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 07 $1,966 +$2 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $72 +$35 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $30 +$3 +10%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $2,021 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $2,130 +$2 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $3 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 06 $10 +$6 +65%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 06 $15 +$3 +21%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 06 $30 +$7 +23%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $120 +$3 +3%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $1,878 +$2 +0%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $50 +$3 +5%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Lakers vs. Pacers Apr 04 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $55 +$1 +1%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 25 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Feb 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Feb 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Feb 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 33d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 33d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 33d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 69d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 69d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 69d
Rockets vs. Suns BUY Rockets 100¢ $1,384 69d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 100¢ $473 69d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 90¢ $81 69d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 90¢ $9 69d
Mavericks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 84¢ $20 70d
Bucks vs. Nets BUY Bucks 56¢ $2 70d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $880 70d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $999 70d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 70d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 93¢ $100 70d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 70d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 70d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 93¢ $52 70d
Kings vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 90¢ $100 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 41¢ $12 70d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $2,001 70d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 61¢ $3 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,130 71d
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies BUY Cavaliers 91¢ $30 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.90 · official $163.91 (match) · 374 history records