Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dca…ed09 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+7%) realized +$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% $0
sports 27% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 43% +4.9%
≤30d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 43% +4.9%
≤90d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 43% +4.9%
all 7 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 43% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 43% +4.9%
10% -25.4% 43% -5.1%
15% -32.6% 43% -14.3%
20% -39.2% 43% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records