Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4dc8…cd7a other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$7
world 31% +$5
finance 12% $0
weather 7% +$2
politics 7% $0
sports 5% +$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 9 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 11% -7.5%
≤90d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 9% -7.9%
all 33 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 9% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 9% -7.0%
10% -22.3% 3% -15.9%
15% -29.8% 3% -24.0%
20% -36.7% 0% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.85 per $1 lost it wins $7.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage482d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $42 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $26 +$1 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $41 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $36 +$4 +11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $2 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $8 −$1 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $86 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 5? Apr 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 01 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 27 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $2 $0 +7%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $22 +$1 +4%
Robert Morris vs. IUPUI Mar 21 $17 +$7 +41%
Will Donald Trump say Zelensky 3+ times during his presser with Starme Feb 27 $13 $0 +0%
Albany vs. UMBC Feb 27 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $43 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $42 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $8 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $33 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $32 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $9 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $45 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $18 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $15 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $11 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $40 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $19 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $17 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $3 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $5 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $36 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $22 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $14 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $11 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $25 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records