Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dc7…9026 crypto 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$339 (-20%) realized −$339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$271
14 days−$271
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$369
world 33% +$65
other 14% −$111
politics 3% +$19
sports 2% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.2% -5.7% 33% 33% -50.5%
≤30d 9 +4.2% -5.7% 33% 33% -50.5%
≤90d 11 +14.3% +3.4% 45% 45% -24.1%
all 25 -10.4% -19.0% 40% 32% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 32% -29.0%
10% -26.7% 32% -35.8%
15% -33.8% 28% -42.0%
20% -40.3% 16% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$45 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage119d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$49 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $207 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +139%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $50 +$19 +37%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $151 +$123 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $10 −$9 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $200 −$166 -83%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 01 $100 −$29 -29%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $100 −$4 -4%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $10 +$5 +49%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 23 $100 −$31 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $4 +$3 +58%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 17 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $107 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 29h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 70d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 62¢ $69 70d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 70d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $151 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $148 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $100 98d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $103 98d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 105d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-03? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 105d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 107d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? SELL Yes 39¢ $71 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 107d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 88¢ $96 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 29¢ $200 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 108d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 108d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records