Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4dc4…c764 politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 38% −$17
sports 6% +$27
crypto 4% −$1
world 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +0.3% -9.2% 3% 2% -9.5%
all 127 -2.3% -11.6% 6% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×13.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage122d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $332 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $236 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $598 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $268 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $242 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $195 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $297 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $271 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $315 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $47 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 3d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 5d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 12d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 12d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $38 13d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.00 · official $90.00 (match) · 398 history records