Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4dc1…ba93 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+18%) realized +$54 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$78
sports 28% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +22.5% +10.8% 86% 86% +19.7%
≤30d 7 +22.5% +10.8% 86% 86% +19.7%
≤90d 7 +22.5% +10.8% 86% 86% +19.7%
all 7 +22.5% +10.8% 86% 86% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.8% 86% +19.7%
10% +0.2% 71% +8.2%
15% -9.4% 57% -2.2%
20% -18.3% 14% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×13.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×80.25 per $1 lost it wins $80.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? No 77¢ 81¢ $94 $100 +$5 (+6%)
Belgium to win the second half? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $81 +$17 +21%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $64 +$17 +26%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $47 +$17 +36%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $19 +$14 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 77¢ $95 12m
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 25m
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $98 50m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 82¢ $81 1h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $64 3h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 4h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.85 · official $102.87 (match) · 16 history records