Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4db8…2ece sports 1081 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$43 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%717W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$11
other 17% −$11
crypto 8% +$36
world 1% +$9
finance 1% −$9
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 61% -13.1%
≤30d 77 +4.8% -5.2% 62% 62% -7.4%
≤90d 204 -1.0% -10.5% 62% 62% -10.5%
all 1076 +2.7% -7.1% 67% 66% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 66% -9.0%
10% -16.0% 57% -17.7%
15% -24.1% 41% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 24% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses717 / 359
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1076 / 1081
History coverage169d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1076 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 69¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 58¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 +$10 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2 +$1 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1 +$1 +105%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 08 $2 +$1 +60%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 08 $2 +$1 +65%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 08 $2 +$1 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 08 $2 +$2 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Halys/Herbert Jun 05 $1 $0 +44%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 05 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.87 · official $43.87 (match) · 2142 history records