Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4db8…00ac other 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$44
sports 21% −$16
politics 8% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$5
world 2% −$2
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 230 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)230 / 230
History coverage127d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 230 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $316 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $309 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $375 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $505 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $958 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $762 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $383 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $108 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $131 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 4h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 6h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 9h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 10h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 14h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 17h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 19h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 19h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 20h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 35h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 37h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 38h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 42h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 44h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 45h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $32 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1334 history records