Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4db8…9751 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,190 (+113%) realized +$1,340 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +123% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip
Net edge+94%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+101.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +122.8% +101.6% 46% 38% +162.9%
≤30d 13 +122.8% +101.6% 46% 38% +162.9%
≤90d 13 +122.8% +101.6% 46% 38% +162.9%
all 13 +122.8% +101.6% 46% 38% +162.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +101.6% 38% +162.9%
10% +82.3% 38% +137.8%
15% +64.7% 38% +114.8%
20% +48.6% 38% +93.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +191% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +123% · $-wt +191% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +191% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$50 · ×5.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.96 per $1 lost it wins $4.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$1,340
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna Oceane Babel 36¢ 29¢ $200 $161 −$39 (-20%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Kaan Isik Kosaner 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Leyton Rivera Leyton Rivera 36¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $96 +$949 +989%
ITF Kayseri: Sandugash Kenzhibayeva vs Marina Markina Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Irvine: Evan Bynoe vs Stian Klaassen Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $51 +$261 +510%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nikita Bilozertsev vs Alexander Bernard Jun 16 $146 +$352 +241%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Denis Petak Jun 12 $51 +$123 +241%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Rebeca Pereira Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Libema Open (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Pavlasek/Rikl Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor Jun 10 $25 +$55 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna BUY Oceane Babel 30¢ $102 1m
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna BUY Oceane Babel 46¢ $102 2m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 7¢ $2 1h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Leo Raquillet 20¢ $42 1h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Leo Raquillet 6¢ $51 1h
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Leyton Rivera BUY Leyton Rivera 36¢ $62 1h
ITF Kayseri: Sandugash Kenzhibayeva vs Marina Markina BUY Marina Markina 19¢ $51 5h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Kaan Isik Kosaner 21¢ $51 6h
ITF Irvine: Evan Bynoe vs Stian Klaassen BUY Evan Bynoe 22¢ $51 17h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 16¢ $51 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nikita Bilozertsev vs Alexander Bernard SELL Alexander Bernard 98¢ $498 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nikita Bilozertsev vs Alexander Bernard BUY Alexander Bernard 31¢ $99 28h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Nikita Bilozertsev vs Alexander Bernard BUY Alexander Bernard 24¢ $47 28h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $51 46h
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Kaitlyn Carnicella 29¢ $51 2d
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Kaitlyn Carnicella 29¢ $51 2d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Denis Petak BUY Denis Petak 29¢ $51 5d
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Rebeca Pereira BUY Rebeca Pereira 18¢ $51 5d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Madelief Hageman 33¢ $51 6d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens SELL Gabriela Ruse 91¢ $5 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Pavlasek/Rikl SELL Gille/Verbeek 41¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Gabriela Ruse 89¢ $5 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Pavlasek/Rikl SELL Gille/Verbeek 23¢ $4 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Pavlasek/Rikl BUY Gille/Verbeek 26¢ $5 6d
ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor SELL Ana Grubor 100¢ $80 6d
ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor BUY Ana Grubor 30¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.72 · official $112.46 · 29 history records