Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4db6…eb6c crypto 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$683 (-10%) realized −$685 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%122W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$241
other 24% −$483
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 50% -40.6%
≤30d 2 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 50% -40.6%
≤90d 2 -36.7% -42.7% 50% 50% -40.6%
all 221 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 48% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 48% -19.9%
10% -25.1% 31% -27.5%
15% -32.4% 22% -34.5%
20% -39.0% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$685
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses122 / 99
Open positions3
Markets (closed)221 / 224
History coverage145d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 10 $7 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 09 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 09 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 18 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 18 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 18 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 18 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 18 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 18 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 18 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 17 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 17 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 17 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 17 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 17 $4 −$1 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $20 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.68 · official $144.69 (match) · 508 history records