Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4db5…4d00 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,637 (-31%) realized −$5,626 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%38W / 29L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$851
7 days+$1,193
14 days+$1,211
30 days+$1,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$6,226
other 17% +$722
crypto 1% −$150
politics 0% −$50
finance 0% +$15
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +45.6% +31.7% 75% 75% +26.1%
≤30d 22 +43.3% +29.7% 73% 68% +12.6%
≤90d 27 +30.9% +18.4% 70% 63% +7.2%
all 67 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 52% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 52% -38.6%
10% -16.3% 48% -44.5%
15% -24.4% 39% -49.8%
20% -31.8% 33% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$338 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$5,626
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses38 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage235d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $807 +$340 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$98 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $541 +$144 +27%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $247 +$146 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 +$44 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$30 +98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 +$40 +99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$260 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$40 -40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$201 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $755 −$743 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $465 +$34 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $306 +$602 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $307 −$300 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $257 +$424 +165%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $129 +$70 +54%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 12 $25 +$15 +59%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $350 +$68 +20%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 20 $922 +$22 +2%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $216 +$64 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 15 $506 +$351 +69%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $43 +$37 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $84 +$181 +215%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $50 +$30 +61%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $243 +$57 +23%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 09 $236 +$256 +109%
Valorant: All Gamers vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $228 +$44 +19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $35 +$11 +33%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $195 +$91 +47%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $6,909 −$6,909 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $10 +$12 +117%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Dec 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Clippers vs. Thunder Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Rockets vs. Warriors Dec 19 $24 +$32 +133%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $78 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 12h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $51 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $135 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 32h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.52 · official $338.89 (match) · 148 history records