Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4db3…9701 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 47L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
politics 17% −$14
other 13% +$18
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% +$2
sports 1% +$27
world 1% +$15
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.6% 13% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 56 +6.1% -4.0% 27% 20% -8.4%
all 66 +5.1% -4.9% 29% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 17% -9.4%
10% -14.0% 17% -18.0%
15% -22.3% 14% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage574d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $201 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $137 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 27 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $150 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $145 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $145 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $12 +$9 +79%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $13 +$6 +46%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +0%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 06 $25 +$17 +70%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 16h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $9 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 21d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.95 · official $93.95 (match) · 280 history records