Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4daf…9a59 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+6%) realized +$23 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$7
sports 19% +$12
weather 5% +$11
world 4% −$5
crypto 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +16.4% +5.4% 38% 38% -1.2%
≤30d 16 +16.4% +5.4% 38% 38% -1.2%
≤90d 21 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 43% -1.6%
all 21 +11.0% +0.4% 43% 43% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 43% -1.6%
10% -9.2% 43% -11.0%
15% -18.0% 38% -19.6%
20% -26.0% 38% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)21 / 32
History coverage52d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26? Apr 27 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 17h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 3d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 50d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.19 · official $105.20 (match) · 41 history records