Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4dae…7933 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+27%) realized +$200 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$114
14 days+$139
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$53
sports 44% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +47.8% +33.7% 50% 50% +19.2%
≤30d 24 +52.0% +37.6% 54% 54% +23.2%
≤90d 24 +52.0% +37.6% 54% 54% +23.2%
all 24 +52.0% +37.6% 54% 54% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.6% 54% +23.2%
10% +24.4% 54% +11.4%
15% +12.4% 42% +0.6%
20% +1.4% 38% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$18 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$18 +36%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$44 +72%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$66 +1290%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 −$10 -39%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $5 40h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 69¢ $13 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $52 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 5d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $15 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $35 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.44 · official $63.46 (match) · 54 history records