Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dae…705a crypto 68 markets active 3d ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,337 (-71%) realized −$1,337 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$44
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,193
crypto 22% −$163
politics 6% +$11
world 3% +$6
economics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -37.2% -43.2% 35% 29% -28.9%
≤30d 43 -35.5% -41.7% 35% 33% -43.1%
≤90d 43 -35.5% -41.7% 35% 33% -43.1%
all 68 -35.6% -41.7% 38% 37% -75.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 37% -75.1%
10% -47.3% 31% -77.5%
15% -52.4% 24% -79.7%
20% -57.0% 18% -81.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$36 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage208d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +91%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $6 +$12 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Feb 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31? Jan 02 $14 +$6 +41%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jan 02 $32 +$8 +27%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 03 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial? Nov 24 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20? Nov 21 $8 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records