Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4dad…e98e crypto 1074 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$728 (+1%) realized +$573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1041W / 33L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$53
14 days+$204
30 days+$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$573
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1073 +1.1% -8.5% 97% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 1074 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 0% -8.6%
all 1074 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 0% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$52 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1041 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1074 / 1074
History coverage36d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1074 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $51 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2118 history records