Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dad…356b politics 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,338 (-1%) realized −$2,337 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,794per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$56
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$169
other 36% −$2,656
sports 12% +$447
culture 3% −$11
world 2% −$7
economics 1% −$5
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 49 +5.5% -4.6% 14% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 109 -9.5% -18.2% 9% 5% -10.8%
all 166 -1.3% -10.7% 19% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.2% 10% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 8% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,741) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$2,337
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,794
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,763 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $2,203 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,799 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $345 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $258 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,903 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,415 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,106 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,336 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 11 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,908 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,157 −$6 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7,063 −$8 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,633 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,068 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,002 −$5 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,980 −$4 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $70 +$47 +67%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,783 −$6 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,153 −$4 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $4,363 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $6,596 −$9 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $69 +$72 +105%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $48 +$31 +65%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $380 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $528 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,758 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $2,178 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,855 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $3,384 −$5 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,675 −$4 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $51 +$69 +134%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $483 32m
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $484 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $158 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $358 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $359 22h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $374 23h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $374 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $359 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $367 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $367 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $452 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $452 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $344 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $345 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $258 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $258 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $354 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $355 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $325 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $326 5d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,280 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,282 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,371 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,372 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,336 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.73 · official $156.73 (match) · 624 history records