Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dab…e426 weather 746 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,039 (+3%) realized +$2,140 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%699W / 41L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$438
14 days+$439
30 days+$1,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -12.6% -20.9% 83% 1% -11.7%
≤30d 507 -1.3% -10.7% 93% 4% -7.6%
≤90d 740 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 5% -7.7%
all 740 +2.5% -7.3% 94% 5% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 5% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -16.5%
15% -24.3% 0% -24.6%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$63 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$3,392
Realized+$2,140
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses699 / 41
Open positions26
Markets (closed)740 / 746
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $213 $236 +$22 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 94¢ 94¢ $231 $230 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 98¢ $206 $212 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 90¢ 92¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $190 $199 +$10 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 91¢ 94¢ $189 $195 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $177 $192 +$15 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? No 92¢ 90¢ $189 $186 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $171 $179 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $170 $177 +$7 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $160 $171 +$11 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? No 96¢ 93¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $122 $127 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? No 96¢ 96¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? No 94¢ 99¢ $69 $72 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? No 93¢ 98¢ $65 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $42 $45 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? No 94¢ 99¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on Apr Jun 17 $5 −$10 -203%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on April 16 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 9? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 4? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -205%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 4? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on Apr Jun 17 $1 −$2 -205%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ap Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 4? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -205%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 8? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 28? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 12 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 17 $104 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $177 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$13 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $228 +$14 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $168 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $170 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $176 +$14 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $222 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $183 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $103 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on June 15? Jun 16 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 16 $68 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $74 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $222 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $186 +$18 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $160 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $28 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $29 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $40 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $40 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $40 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,392.48 · official $3,392.49 (match) · 3500 history records