Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4da7…355e world 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$165,394 (+11%) realized +$155,145 · open +$10,249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%66W / 43L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$12,951per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$114,323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35,527
7 days+$76,099
14 days+$73,032
30 days+$70,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$178,966
politics 12% +$8,913
crypto 12% +$3,102
culture 11% +$18,718
tech 2% +$1,993
finance 1% +$547
sports 0% +$379
other 0% −$728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +33.6% +20.9% 79% 63% +25.0%
≤30d 57 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 42% +2.2%
≤90d 109 -2.7% -11.9% 61% 35% +3.6%
all 109 -2.7% -11.9% 61% 35% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 35% +3.6%
10% -20.4% 27% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 20% -15.4%
20% -35.1% 13% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$7,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,638 vs −$916 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.24 per $1 lost it wins $6.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$114,323
Realized+$155,145
Unrealized+$10,249
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses66 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions12
Markets (closed)109 / 121
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$12,951
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 100¢ $38,584 $39,116 +$532 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 86¢ $24,379 $29,070 +$4,691 (+19%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $13,201 $13,748 +$547 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 88¢ $7,161 $8,464 +$1,303 (+18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $5,681 $6,039 +$358 (+6%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $5,303 $5,430 +$127 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $3,829 $4,962 +$1,133 (+30%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 28¢ 40¢ $2,780 $4,050 +$1,270 (+46%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $1,575 $1,869 +$294 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1,560 $1,500 −$60 (-4%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 5¢ 52¢ $6 $61 +$55 (+950%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,356 +$566 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4,650 +$10,350 +223%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $112,674 +$24,772 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $785 +$730 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$129 +212%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $5,411 +$1,354 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$58 -93%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$16 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38,447 +$23,306 +61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10,760 +$13,613 +126%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $24 +$12 +49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $716 −$408 -57%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $347 −$115 -33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3,940 +$60 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1,996 +$15 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $4,890 +$110 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $12,532 +$1,717 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $430 +$90 +21%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $328 −$328 -100%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $330 −$330 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $4,000 +$1,000 +25%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $618 +$445 +72%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,544 +$107 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7,500 −$4,570 -61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,417 +$433 +18%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 06 $1,938 +$296 +15%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 05 $110 −$30 -27%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $340 −$160 -47%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $260 −$260 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $187,866 +$3,102 +2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $11,635 +$1,003 +9%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $2,970 +$1,885 +64%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $546 −$481 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $57,252 −$12,321 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,406 −$293 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $960 −$960 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $580 −$580 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,610 +$2,400 +92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $960 +$160 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 29 $98 −$58 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,737 +$2,096 +44%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $4,166 +$1,698 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $19,840 +$160 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $11,437 +$601 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $700 27m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $2,500 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3,000 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $158 3h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL Yes 12¢ $150 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $148 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $100 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $240 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $3 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $5 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $3 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $5 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $3 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $8 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $2 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $3 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $6 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $5 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $78 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $9 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,560 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $1,100 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $124 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $199 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114,323.15 · official $114,323.15 (match) · 3500 history records