Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4da7…9d07
crypto · 154 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$95 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses78 / 75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day75.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$95
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 58¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 43¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$82
finance 1% −$10
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -15.3% -23.4% 58% 49% -20.3%
≤30d 153 -20.0% -27.7% 51% 42% -19.2%
≤90d 153 -20.0% -27.7% 51% 42% -19.2%
all 153 -20.0% -27.7% 51% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 42% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 32% -26.9%
15% -40.9% 23% -34.0%
20% -46.7% 13% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.67 · official $4.16 (match) · 619 history records