Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4da5…3baf sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$736 (-8%) realized −$842 · open +$106
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%33W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$500
7 days+$457
14 days+$792
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$39
other 26% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +45.4% +31.5% 53% 53% +4.5%
≤30d 59 +34.9% +22.0% 56% 56% -11.9%
≤90d 59 +34.9% +22.0% 56% 56% -11.9%
all 59 +34.9% +22.0% 56% 56% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.0% 56% -11.9%
10% +10.4% 54% -20.3%
15% -0.3% 51% -28.0%
20% -10.1% 47% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$133 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$706
Realized−$842
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses33 / 26
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 71
History coverage20d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 93¢ $150 $260 +$110 (+73%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $188 +$274 +146%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $149 +$89 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$101 +197%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $7 +$7 +93%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $7 +$5 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $83 +$53 +63%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $20 +$34 +164%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $161 +$92 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $37 +$60 +160%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $170 +$130 +76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $198 +$134 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jun 17 $181 +$141 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a Jun 16 $5 +$74 +1446%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $87 −$86 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $156 −$154 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $127 −$125 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherla Jun 15 $243 +$185 +76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$148 +145%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $99 +$74 +74%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $67 +$153 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $220 +$146 +66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $206 −$203 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $172 −$171 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$6 +42%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$53 +31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$81 +442%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $221 +$50 +23%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $131 −$130 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 +$83 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $134 +$153 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $152 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $152 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $152 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $151 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 41¢ $60 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $188 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $152 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $149 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $125 23h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Sweden win on BUY $6 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Japan w BUY 30¢ $18 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $51 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 47h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY 38¢ $9 2d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $7 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $7 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 44¢ $15 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 61¢ $83 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $161 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $30 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $7 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $201 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $170 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $198 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $91 4d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win BUY 45¢ $152 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $705.84 · official $764.69 · 112 history records