Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4da1…6045 sports 164 markets active 9h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%44W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$135
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$19
other 38% −$24
crypto 2% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 25% -57.1%
≤30d 98 -52.0% -56.5% 12% 12% -49.4%
≤90d 147 -13.0% -21.3% 23% 23% -20.5%
all 164 -7.6% -16.4% 27% 26% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 26% -13.0%
10% -24.4% 26% -21.4%
15% -31.7% 26% -29.0%
20% -38.4% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses44 / 120
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage193d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$4 +140%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$10 +509%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $4 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 46h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $7 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $7 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $3 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 9d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records