Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d9c…8824
weather · 1413 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,172 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,053 · open −$119
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,680
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1316 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1387 / 1413
History coverage26d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 19 History 1387 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$397
14 days−$609
30 days−$1,053
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $340 $340 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 63¢ 80¢ $47 $59 +$13 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 104°F or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 99¢ 12¢ $140 $16 −$124 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: Points in 1st 3 Minutes O/U 16.5 Over 99¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 2AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
HYPE Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on June 1 Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 102°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $78 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 47% +$35
other 20% −$613
crypto 17% −$91
sports 15% −$511
finance 1% +$13
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $302 17m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $112 35m
HYPE Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 95¢ $8 1h
HYPE Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $0 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $340 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $28 12h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $30 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 385 -5.6% -14.6% 94% 1% -11.2%
≤30d 1387 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 1387 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -10.9%
all 1387 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 2% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 1% -19.4%
15% -29.0% 1% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,679.93 · official $1,679.93 (match) · 3500 history records