Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d9b…6c14 politics 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$9
other 16% −$3
world 10% −$1
crypto 10% $0
tech 5% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$763) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,344
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage78d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,306 $1,305 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,304 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,326 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? May 27 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? May 27 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi May 27 $733 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 26 $764 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $30 $0 -1%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 25 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will Yeom Tae-yeong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Elect May 25 $750 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 25 $704 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 05 $134 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $59 24h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 25h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 25h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 25h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $11 25h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $247 25h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $25 25h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 26h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $906 26h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 26h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 26h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 26h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $52 47h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 47h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,254 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $16 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $931 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $309 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 2d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 99¢ $80 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $41 21d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,344.12 · official $1,344.12 (match) · 99 history records