Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d95…21c1 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$5
other 13% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 4% +$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 0% -8.8%
all 33 +0.3% -9.3% 48% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage466d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $54 +$4 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $86 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $47 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 08 $6 $0 -2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 12 $16 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $49 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $36 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $10 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $6 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $35 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $12 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $13 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $1 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $35 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.03 · official $49.03 (match) · 110 history records