Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d93…c671 sports 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$142 (+0%) realized +$45 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%141W / 105L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$335
14 days−$78
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$181
tech 20% −$162
finance 20% +$222
sports 9% +$446
other 7% −$264
weather 5% −$52
crypto 5% +$13
politics 3% +$80
economics 1% −$76
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +29.9% +17.5% 64% 64% +4.4%
≤30d 41 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 49% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -8.3% -17.0% 59% 37% -10.0%
all 246 -5.1% -14.1% 57% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 37% -9.4%
10% -22.3% 18% -18.0%
15% -29.8% 12% -26.0%
20% -36.7% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$35 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$1,890
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses141 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions9
Markets (closed)246 / 255
History coverage122d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 73¢ 77¢ $543 $577 +$34 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $436 $502 +$66 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 69¢ 86¢ $207 $260 +$52 (+25%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $230 $172 −$58 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $198 $155 −$43 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $83 $81 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 14¢ $102 $44 −$58 (-57%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $23 $19 −$3 (-15%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Under 67¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? No 76¢ $262 $0 −$262 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28? No 87¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 28¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $165 +$135 +82%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $86 −$84 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 +$11 +90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $498 +$102 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $172 +$28 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $50 +$90 +179%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $286 +$277 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 10 $188 −$50 -27%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 09 $514 −$209 -41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $118 +$114 +96%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 08 $92 −$77 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $524 −$207 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $145 +$40 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $118 −$72 -61%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$49 +98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $71 −$56 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $277 −$167 -60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $289 +$74 +26%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? May 30 $105 −$60 -57%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? May 30 $160 −$60 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $774 −$60 -8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $100 −$26 -26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $949 +$203 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 27 $312 +$48 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $80 +$20 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $86 −$37 -44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $228 +$32 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $287 +$94 +33%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 24 $292 +$44 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $309 −$173 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $239 −$158 -66%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 23 $110 +$15 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $50 +$8 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $285 +$25 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $655 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $179 +$89 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 May 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $114 +$7 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $68 +$16 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 16 $273 −$11 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 16 $10 −$7 -65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 14 $201 −$10 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 14 $313 +$69 +22%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $157 −$76 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $139 +$18 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 11 $169 −$22 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 11 $160 +$17 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $238 +$29 +12%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $19 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $147 +$11 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $104 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $166 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $42 11h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 28¢ $86 21h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $64 43h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 44h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $127 44h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 44h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 95¢ $23 45h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $135 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $3 46h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 50¢ $10 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 86¢ $26 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 86¢ $120 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 86¢ $26 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $170 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $498 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $28 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $144 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 70¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 70¢ $134 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 SELL Under 70¢ $6 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 25¢ $15 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 25¢ $0 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 25¢ $0 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,889.86 · official $1,889.91 (match) · 1239 history records