Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d93…3851 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1
other 14% +$2
sports 9% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 39 +1.7% -7.9% 44% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 3% -17.8%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.8%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $63 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $34 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $36 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Dec 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $5 $0 +8%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $6 $0 +9%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 19 $13 $0 -0%
Arizona State vs. Arizona Mar 04 $13 $0 -3%
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Wild vs. Kraken Mar 04 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $13 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $26 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $33 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $33 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $23 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $23 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $20 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $9 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $30 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $21 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $4 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $4 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.35 · official $36.35 (match) · 99 history records