Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d91…ac49 sports 925 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$85 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%411W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$181
14 days+$134
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$87
other 11% −$151
world 0% +$4
weather 0% −$2
finance 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +12.1% +1.4% 55% 53% -0.3%
≤30d 429 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 47% -9.9%
≤90d 892 -1.7% -11.0% 46% 43% -10.1%
all 892 -1.7% -11.0% 46% 43% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 43% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 36% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses411 / 481
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions31
Markets (closed)892 / 925
History coverage56d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 892 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 42¢ 46¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 43¢ 44¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 59¢ 57¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ 50¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 47¢ 44¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 48¢ 48¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals 39¢ 38¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 50¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 44¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Texas Super Kings 50¢ 91¢ $14 $26 +$12 (+82%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 30¢ 44¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+47%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand New Zealand 28¢ 24¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 39¢ 38¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 47¢ 58¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ 42¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 50¢ 50¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 50¢ 64¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+28%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 53¢ 52¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Atlanta Braves 49¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 47¢ 48¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 49¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire Jun 27 $27 +$20 +72%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire Jun 27 $10 +$7 +73%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire Jun 26 $30 +$15 +49%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $60 −$6 -10%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil Jun 25 $30 +$8 +26%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $30 +$33 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $46 +$16 +35%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $26 +$29 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $21 +$23 +109%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 25 $13 +$15 +109%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 25 $30 +$39 +130%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $10 +$12 +114%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Tarvisio: Noemi Maines vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 24 $4 +$1 +16%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $30 +$29 +94%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $13 +$17 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $30 +$26 +84%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $9 +$16 +172%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $28 +$17 +60%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 23 $30 +$2 +7%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $31 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 53¢ $6 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $4 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $4 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $8 2h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $6 2h
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 50¢ $15 3h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $7 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 58¢ $10 3h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $12 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 59¢ $20 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $6 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $8 6h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire BUY Nottinghamshire 63¢ $7 6h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire BUY Nottinghamshire 63¢ $7 6h
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire BUY Warwickshire 57¢ $10 7h
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Yorkshire 42¢ $4 7h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $21 7h
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire BUY Lancashire 67¢ $19 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 50¢ $4 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 50¢ $10 7h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 50¢ $10 7h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $14 8h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $16 8h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $31 8h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $9 8h
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Yorkshire 31¢ $2 9h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire BUY Nottinghamshire 53¢ $14 10h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $29 10h
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Surrey BUY Surrey 65¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.93 · official $613.94 (match) · 2595 history records