Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d91…cdeb
crypto · 1563 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,007 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$645 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses856 / 789
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1645 / 1563
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day199.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1645 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$809
7 days−$548
14 days−$723
30 days−$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 50¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$7 -940%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 971 -22.9% -30.3% 42% 40% -20.4%
≤30d 1645 -14.5% -22.6% 52% 43% -15.4%
≤90d 1645 -14.5% -22.6% 52% 43% -15.4%
all 1645 -14.5% -22.6% 52% 43% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover199.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 43% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 33% -23.5%
15% -36.8% 22% -30.9%
20% -43.0% 20% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $0.97 (match) · 3500 history records