Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4d91…00f7 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$46 (+8%) realized +$49 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +56.8% +41.9% 29% 29% +0.6%
≤30d 7 +56.8% +41.9% 29% 29% +0.6%
≤90d 7 +56.8% +41.9% 29% 29% +0.6%
all 7 +56.8% +41.9% 29% 29% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.9% 29% +0.6%
10% +28.3% 29% -9.0%
15% +15.9% 29% -17.8%
20% +4.5% 29% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$52 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $42 $35 −$7 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $25 +$175 +698%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$42 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $74 −$41 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $72 +$128 +178%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.00 · official $178.00 (match) · 39 history records