Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d90…2512
crypto · 574 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$230 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$227 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses418 / 155
Open positions1
Markets (closed)573 / 574
History coverage13d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day221.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 573 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$234
14 days−$227
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 40¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+146%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 54¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 433 -9.7% -18.3% 76% 24% -17.3%
≤30d 573 -7.2% -16.1% 73% 22% -11.4%
≤90d 573 -7.2% -16.1% 73% 22% -11.4%
all 573 -7.2% -16.1% 73% 22% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover221.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 22% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 8% -19.9%
15% -31.4% 5% -27.6%
20% -38.1% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records