Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d8c…b28c other 72 markets active 5h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-34%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$86
sports 18% −$14
crypto 7% −$6
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -44.3% -49.6% 16% 13% -44.0%
≤30d 69 -44.3% -49.6% 16% 13% -44.0%
≤90d 69 -44.3% -49.6% 16% 13% -44.0%
all 72 -42.6% -48.1% 15% 12% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.1% 12% -43.4%
10% -53.1% 12% -48.8%
15% -57.6% 11% -53.7%
20% -61.8% 8% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage163d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$5 -22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -64%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$18 -45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +72%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -55%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -68%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -66%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -69%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +448%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 59¢ $16 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records