Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d8a…8102 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
other 44% $0
crypto 4% +$2
politics 3% +$10
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 58% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 13 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 8% -9.5%
all 32 -2.8% -12.0% 53% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 9% -7.9%
10% -20.5% 3% -16.7%
15% -28.1% 3% -24.7%
20% -35.2% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage401d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2 −$1 -21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $9 +$10 +108%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 07 $20 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 07 $21 +$1 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 02 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 01 $24 +$4 +15%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah break the assists record this season? May 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 10h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $23 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $23 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $42 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $4 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $19 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $15 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $46 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $45 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $32 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $27 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $5 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 3¢ $2 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $37 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $6 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2 24d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $45 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $16 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records