Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d8a…2d2a crypto 687 markets active 5d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+2%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate64%442W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day36.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$10
weather 12% +$62
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 25% 17% -31.7%
≤30d 72 +9.7% -0.7% 35% 31% -1.3%
≤90d 687 -1.1% -10.6% 64% 27% -8.7%
all 687 -1.1% -10.6% 64% 27% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 27% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 21% -17.4%
15% -26.9% 14% -25.4%
20% -34.1% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses442 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)687 / 687
History coverage45d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day36.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 687 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on June Jun 05 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4? Jun 05 $26 +$12 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 05 $77 +$13 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1? Jun 02 $4 +$6 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $35 +$25 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$5 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$10 +462%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 31? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $70 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $23 +$14 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 3 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $30 +$35 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 29? May 30 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 30? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 27? May 28 $86 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $7 +$8 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 May 26 $70 +$23 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY No 31¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on June SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 5? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on June BUY Yes 48¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 4? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 86¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 86¢ $6 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 86¢ $26 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 4? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 84¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 84¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2205 history records