Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d85…43bb crypto 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167 (-10%) realized −$174 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%129W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$131
sports 4% −$28
other 2% −$8
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% -30.7%
≤30d 32 +4.5% -5.5% 56% 53% -32.7%
≤90d 32 +4.5% -5.5% 56% 53% -32.7%
all 257 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 44% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 44% -19.5%
10% -26.3% 40% -27.2%
15% -33.4% 33% -34.2%
20% -39.9% 27% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses129 / 128
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)257 / 272
History coverage156d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 78¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 64¢ 59¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? No 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 23 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 23 $27 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 23 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 23 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 23 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 23 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 37¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 8h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 8h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.34 · official $30.31 · 708 history records