trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 17% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 33% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 33% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 29 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 41% | 0% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 0% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 0% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 22 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 21 | $21 | +$1 | +3% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 20 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $30 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 13 | $16 | −$2 | -12% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | May 07 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 07 | $16 | −$3 | -16% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Mar 27 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 27 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? | Mar 26 | $15 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | Mar 23 | $12 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 23 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 16? | Mar 18 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 16 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 16 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | -0% |