Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4D 0x4d7f…4a4a other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$317 (-47%) realized −$324 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 103d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$251
crypto 21% −$140
sports 11% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +57.8% +42.8% 50% 50% -32.6%
≤30d 2 +57.8% +42.8% 50% 50% -32.6%
≤90d 2 +57.8% +42.8% 50% 50% -32.6%
all 7 -27.5% -34.4% 29% 29% -61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 29% -61.5%
10% -40.7% 29% -65.2%
15% -46.4% 29% -68.5%
20% -51.7% 14% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$78 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$324
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage103d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 90¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$66 +216%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $125 −$125 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? Mar 08 $276 −$151 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $97 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 31¢ $31 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 2¢ $29 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 1¢ $31 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $99 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $13 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 93d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $15 93d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $10 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 8? BUY No 29¢ $125 101d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $125 101d
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $276 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.94 · official $67.15 (match) · 16 history records