Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d79…e9e8 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-9%) realized −$46 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$65
crypto 39% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 47% -19.7%
≤30d 36 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 47% -19.7%
≤90d 36 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 47% -19.7%
all 36 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 47% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 47% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 39% -27.4%
15% -32.3% 28% -34.4%
20% -38.9% 22% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$12 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$3 +68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$29 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 +$28 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.49 · official $59.49 (match) · 85 history records