Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:59:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d78…274a crypto 1431 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$295 (-0%) realized −$295 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%1027W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$167
14 days−$106
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 49% -13.6%
≤30d 747 +0.5% -9.1% 58% 45% -10.3%
≤90d 1157 +0.6% -8.9% 70% 39% -10.2%
all 1431 +0.0% -9.5% 72% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 40% -10.3%
10% -18.1% 24% -18.9%
15% -26.1% 23% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 23% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$295
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses1027 / 404
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1431 / 1431
History coverage108d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1431 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $24 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3377 history records