Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4d78…f480 sports 72 markets active 6d ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$138 (+15%) realized +$122 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 36L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$55
crypto 19% +$6
politics 18% +$96
other 15% −$14
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +96.6% +77.9% 75% 75% +10.9%
≤90d 14 +27.6% +15.4% 50% 50% +0.9%
all 66 +20.2% +8.7% 45% 42% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 42% +3.2%
10% -1.7% 42% -6.6%
15% -11.2% 41% -15.7%
20% -19.9% 39% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage583d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+79%)
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 51¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $5 +$15 +293%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 +$20 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $29 −$28 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$15 +145%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 +$34 +223%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 28 $10 +$15 +146%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $15 +$11 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 1? Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 31 $20 −$10 -50%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $7 +$15 +212%
Fight to Go the Distance? Nov 16 $20 +$28 +138%
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Islam Makhachev win by KO or TKO? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Nov 11 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 05 $10 +$13 +133%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 25 $20 +$25 +123%
Park vs. Aliskerov Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Oct 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $10 +$22 +219%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 05 $10 +$12 +119%
UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Oct 04 $5 +$10 +194%
UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by KO/TKO/DQ? Sep 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will France win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "We Won" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is call Nov 15 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $20 +$63 +317%
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 12 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Heat vs. Pistons Nov 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Nov 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Nov 11 $10 +$9 +85%
Celtics vs. Bucks Nov 10 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 09 $15 $0 +3%
Hawks vs. Pistons Nov 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $20 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $15 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 18d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 42¢ $10 37d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $25 37d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 20¢ $1 40d
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) BUY William Gomis 35¢ $10 40d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 40¢ $10 40d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 53¢ $10 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 48d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 48d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 66d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 51¢ $10 66d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Israel Adesanya 57¢ $15 79d
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Axel Sola 42¢ $10 86d
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Axel Sola 46¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 1? BUY Up 15¢ $4 135d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Fiziev 52¢ $10 135d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Ruffy 48¢ $9 135d
Will Nassourdine Imavov be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 3 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 136d
UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Ruffy 52¢ $10 137d
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Volkanovski 57¢ $15 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.32 · official $51.33 (match) · 134 history records