Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d77…af31 world 158 markets active 24h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,473 (+3%) realized +$4,582 · open −$3,109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%71W / 74L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$742now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$327
14 days−$218
30 days+$2,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3,930
finance 16% −$4,049
politics 15% −$543
other 12% +$2,268
sports 4% +$422
economics 1% −$450
tech 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 64% 55% -3.4%
≤30d 95 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 34% -2.6%
≤90d 145 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 38% +0.4%
all 145 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 38% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 38% +0.4%
10% -18.3% 28% -9.2%
15% -26.1% 25% -18.0%
20% -33.4% 17% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$90 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$742
Realized+$4,582
Unrealized−$3,109
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses71 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions13
Markets (closed)145 / 158
History coverage70d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 47¢ 52¢ $313 $349 +$36 (+11%)
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $397 $148 −$249 (-63%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $42 $33 −$8 (-20%)
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 41¢ 0¢ $2,891 $4 −$2,888 (-100%)
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,144 +$467 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $244 +$355 +146%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $942 +$35 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $829 +$181 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,321 +$363 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $170 −$38 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $975 +$115 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $2,427 −$1,139 -47%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $19 −$7 -37%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,513 −$566 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 +$79 +80%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $795 −$34 -4%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $666 +$369 +55%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $64 +$20 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 06 $38 −$22 -58%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $163 +$300 +185%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $58 +$87 +150%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $50 +$137 +275%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 06 $272 −$272 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? Jun 06 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $46 +$56 +121%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? Jun 06 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $429 +$232 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $24 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $0 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $1 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $2 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $0 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $5 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 25¢ $155 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 19¢ $15 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 19¢ $0 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 18¢ $59 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 15¢ $150 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 10¢ $104 34h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $25 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $599 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 25¢ $5 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 25¢ $495 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $244 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $391 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $435 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $133 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $95 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $291 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.09 · official $735.76 (match) · 1200 history records