Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d76…90a0 crypto 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,341 (-63%) realized −$14,341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate51%113W / 109L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day239.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$81
14 days−$7,669
30 days−$7,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$7,763
other 2% +$24
politics 1% +$75
sports 0% −$2
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -66.6% -69.8% 17% 0% -41.3%
≤30d 222 -16.8% -24.8% 51% 28% -39.9%
≤90d 222 -16.8% -24.8% 51% 28% -39.9%
all 222 -16.8% -24.8% 51% 28% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 28% -39.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 18% -45.6%
15% -38.5% 16% -50.9%
20% -44.6% 14% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$108 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$14,341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses113 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day239.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $47 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $14 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $14 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$13 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$13 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$14 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $14 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $45 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 9d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 9d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.72 · official $49.72 (match) · 3500 history records