Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d75…f814 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$2
other 28% $0
sports 10% +$1
politics 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 31 +0.2% -9.3% 35% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 2% -9.4%
all 46 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage97d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $102 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $99 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 +$9 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $128 −$5 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $133 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $85 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $258 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $143 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $101 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $76 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $54 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $118 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $79 +$5 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $263 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $70 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $79 −$12 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $80 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $99 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $163 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $623 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $621 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $157 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $611 +$1 +0%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $611 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $80 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 16h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $88 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $89 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $89 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $89 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $55 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $44 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $34 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $70 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $67 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $63 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.19 · official $79.93 (match) · 205 history records