Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d74…bf2e
crypto · 6 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$4 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤30d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% -4.6%
≤90d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% -4.6%
all 6 -10.6% -19.1% 50% 50% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 50% -4.6%
10% -26.8% 50% -13.7%
15% -33.9% 33% -22.1%
20% -40.4% 17% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records