Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d74…a37f other 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,496 (-2%) realized −$2,496 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate70%64W / 28L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,269per market
Trades / day112.6pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days−$737
14 days−$3,947
30 days−$2,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$2,139
sports 15% −$832
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.2% -24.2% 75% 6% -12.9%
≤30d 92 -9.2% -17.9% 70% 7% -11.8%
≤90d 92 -9.2% -17.9% 70% 7% -11.8%
all 92 -9.2% -17.9% 70% 7% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 7% -11.8%
10% -25.7% 2% -20.2%
15% ← realistic here -32.9% 0% -28.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$218 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,496
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses64 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,269
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $996 +$14 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5,907 +$27 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,023 +$13 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $992 +$41 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $974 +$132 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $634 +$30 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $720 +$4 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $602 +$14 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 +$13 +6%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $833 −$826 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,000 +$28 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $996 −$61 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,105 +$58 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $445 +$34 +8%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $113 +$1 +1%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $147 +$10 +7%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,661 −$745 -45%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,902 −$69 -4%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3,260 −$1,574 -48%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $253 −$116 -46%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $478 −$478 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $54 +$2 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6,152 +$125 +2%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $7,035 −$225 -3%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $988 +$18 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $117 +$6 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $9,522 −$372 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4,830 +$239 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3,615 −$406 -11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5,663 +$245 +4%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,815 +$102 +6%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,439 +$12 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4,005 +$35 +1%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 −$72 -72%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $547 +$6 +1%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 05 $3,020 +$53 +2%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,641 +$12 +1%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2,180 +$75 +3%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,191 +$88 +7%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $49 +$2 +3%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2,713 −$144 -5%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $250 −$95 -38%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $200 +$11 +5%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $95 +$16 +17%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $4,464 +$28 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $996 54m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 85¢ $327 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 85¢ $69 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 85¢ $64 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 85¢ $552 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $761 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $11 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $223 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 81¢ $856 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $6 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $829 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $57 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 58¢ $15 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 58¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 58¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 58¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 58¢ $941 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,014 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $987 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $110 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,015 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $904 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $50 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,015 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 49¢ $958 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 50¢ $19 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2439 history records