Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d72…18c0 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$2
world 15% −$3
sports 13% +$5
economics 10% $0
finance 3% +$24
other 1% −$8
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 12% -10.5%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 22 +1.6% -8.1% 27% 9% -8.4%
all 39 +3.9% -6.0% 46% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 15% -8.6%
10% -15.0% 13% -17.4%
15% -23.2% 8% -25.4%
20% -30.8% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage526d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 44¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $186 −$3 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $150 +$6 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $69 +$24 +36%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $487 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $228 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $271 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $251 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $5 $0 +2%
Furman vs. Samford Mar 03 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 03 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Eagles and Commanders combine for 48 or more points? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $1 $0 +0%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $2 $0 +0%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jan 09 $4 +$2 +56%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $6 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $31 44m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $32 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $34 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $31.30 (match) · 112 history records