Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d6f…be20 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,984 (+11%) realized +$2,418 · open +$566
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate56%61W / 47L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day133.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$255
14 days+$289
30 days+$2,081
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,646
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -40.0% -45.7% 30% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 108 -17.5% -25.4% 56% 25% +1.5%
≤90d 108 -17.5% -25.4% 56% 25% +1.5%
all 108 -17.5% -25.4% 56% 25% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover133.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 25% +1.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 12% -8.2%
15% -39.0% 9% -17.1%
20% -45.0% 6% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$15 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$7,159
Realized+$2,418
Unrealized+$566
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses61 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions33
Markets (closed)108 / 141
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day133.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1,508 $1,518 +$10 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $1,100 $1,384 +$284 (+26%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $1,071 $1,268 +$197 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Up 66¢ 88¢ $795 $1,066 +$270 (+34%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $390 $382 −$9 (-2%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 25? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $322 $328 +$6 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 45¢ 75¢ $194 $324 +$131 (+67%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? No 92¢ 100¢ $240 $260 +$20 (+8%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $164 $208 +$43 (+26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Yes 66¢ 75¢ $157 $179 +$22 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? Yes 54¢ 68¢ $41 $52 +$11 (+26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? No 92¢ 100¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? No 87¢ 99¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on July 1? No 6¢ 7¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? No 94¢ 99¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 1? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 30? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 27? No 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 28? No 4¢ 1¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-75%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? No 3¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 27? No 2¢ 6¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+197%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 1? No 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $21 −$6 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $432 −$5 -1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 24 $70 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $375 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,534 +$14 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 23? Jun 23 $8 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $169 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $54 −$4 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $330 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$4 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$9 -19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$5 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $51 −$41 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $181 −$3 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $197 −$69 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $239 −$40 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $149 +$20 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $724 +$132 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,192 +$89 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$17 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$16 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $617 +$35 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 46m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 92¢ $119 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $77 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $21 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 95¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $240 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $284 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $366 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 93¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 93¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 92¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 92¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 13¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 13¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 21¢ $112 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,158.98 · official $7,158.85 (match) · 3500 history records