Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d6c…124c crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+4%) realized +$79 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$27
other 19% +$55
politics 1% +$1
world 1% +$11
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 67% +34.2%
≤30d 3 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 67% +34.2%
≤90d 3 +10.0% -0.5% 67% 67% +34.2%
all 31 +6.7% -3.5% 74% 35% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 35% -5.7%
10% -12.7% 35% -14.8%
15% -21.1% 29% -23.0%
20% -28.9% 26% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$29 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage151d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 36¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$34 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $42 +$33 +78%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 25 $184 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 25 $178 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 24 $117 +$61 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 24 $107 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 24 $99 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 24 $98 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 24 $75 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 24 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 23 $48 +$24 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 23 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 23 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Feb 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 22 $17 +$16 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 21 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 21 $11 +$15 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 20 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 19 $17 +$1 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$5,100 in January? Jan 30 $30 +$25 +84%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of January Jan 30 $20 −$3 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $75 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $184 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $178 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $117 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $107 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $99 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $98 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $75 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $72 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $38 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.76 · official $85.76 (match) · 72 history records