Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4d6c…f76b sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$365 (+24%) realized +$385 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$321
other 11% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 50% +21.4%
≤30d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 50% +21.4%
≤90d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 50% +21.4%
all 4 +26.2% +14.2% 50% 50% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 50% +21.4%
10% +3.3% 50% +9.8%
15% -6.7% 50% -0.8%
20% -15.8% 50% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$13 · ×13.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.74 per $1 lost it wins $13.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $245 $247 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 43¢ 42¢ $145 $143 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 35¢ 30¢ $156 $136 −$20 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $171 −$8 -5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $191 −$18 -9%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $373 +$212 +57%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $235 +$146 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $159 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $163 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $171 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 33¢ $173 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $191 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $248 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 43¢ $147 1h
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $373 4h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 61¢ $235 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.70 · official $525.74 (match) · 11 history records